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My investing track record
Over the years, I’ve built and preserved my legacy by spotting big themes early:
- Summer 2008: right before the financial crash I saw Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – pillars of the American economy – collapse. I sold everything and avoided huge losses.
- January/February 2020: I saw millions under lockdown in China as people were dropping dead in the streets. I sold everything avoiding the pandemic crash.
- April 2020: I started buying as I saw the speed and amplitude of monetary and fiscal support. Later that year I saw earnings and the economy remain reasonably intact and the virtual economy flourish. Also, it became increasingly clear that a Covid-19 vaccine was feasible and would be soon available. I became super bullish and fully invested.
- Early 2021: I started warning about rising prices.
- January/February 2022: I observed heating inflation signals and it became increasingly clear the Fed was far behind the curve and needed to aggressively tighten, potentially pushing the economy into recession within 6-18 months. At a minimum, I felt that tightening financial conditions would be a disaster for stocks and bonds. At the same time war in Ukraine was brewing. I moved almost all my holdings to energy stocks and cash. Later I sold my energy stocks close to the peak.
Sometimes I’m wrong, sometimes I’m right. Successful investing and wealth creation isn’t about being always right. It’s about making the right moves when you are right and limiting losses when you’re wrong.
I am a conservative investor and wealth creator. I don’t buy high-flying names trading at ridiculous multiples just because they’re popular. So I might miss a few rocket rides. However, I also avoid the plummets back down to earth.
My primary objective is to preserve the wealth I’ve accumulated by working hard all my life. My secondary objective is to earn an reasonable return on that wealth to exploit the long-term benefit of compounding.
If any of this resonates with you, please subscribe.